Homelessness and sleeping rough is on the rise globally

“What would be really good is a plan (any plan) aimed at addressing the actual issues — housing affordability, living standards, inequality — and switching the political and economic rhetoric from what is a pyrrhic quest for continual growth to societal improvement. For this to happen petty party politics and neo-liberal idolatry will need to be put aside. That is our biggest challenge.”

— Níall Mayson (Housing insights from a reformed capitalist)

Growth isn’t synonymous with better housing outcomes

Growth and improvement are two quite different concepts. At its most basic level ‘growth’ can be defined as ‘the process of increasing in size, value, amount, degree, volume, weight, height, complexity’ etc. It is very much weighted toward ‘quantum’. In a business sense it relates to market metrics such as penetration, development and diversification. In economics at a country level growth is most closely associated with the production of goods and services as measured by GDP. But getting bigger in say housing supply or GDP does not necessarily mean getting better or that the country as a whole is better off, especially if the benefits are not socially-diffuse. In this sense growth is more synonymous with social inequality or, to put it simply, winners and losers.

Improvement on the other hand can be defined as ‘the process of making something better whether in quality, value, condition, or the state of getting better’. The difference between the two concepts is starkly evident in policy approaches taken by countries aimed at addressing housing access, affordability and quality. Here in New Zealand almost all policy over the last 25 or so years has been focused on increasing the supply of land on which to build more market-priced housing. The policies have been founded on the somewhat dodgy neo-liberal thinking that simply increasing supply will somehow magically improve housing affordability. The policy approach has been a complete failure and New Zealand has recorded some of the worst housing price inflation and overburden costs in the OECD. This is frankly unsurprising given that ~96% of all housing stock in New Zealand is ‘market-priced’ and where the key market actors are in it for one thing only — making as much money as possible.

In his book Capital economist Thomas Piketty calls these market actors the rentier society and sums up inequality implicit in the ‘free market’ as “r>g”. Essentially the rate of return on private capital (r) sought by such rentiers is greater than growth in the economy (g), which he contests “has nothing to do with market imperfections and will not disappear as markets become freer and more competitive”, an economic idea he dismisses as an “illusion”. For anyone still clinging to the belief that economic growth in the order of 3-4% p.a. is the best or only way we can improve social equality Thomas Piketty offers another pertinent insight where he notes “…there is no historical example of a country at the world technological frontier whose growth in per capital output exceeded 1.5 percent over a lengthy period of time.” It’s in the interests of those controlling capital for economic growth to be as high as possible but sustained high levels are unrealistic and growth, in the form of increased housing supply, will not lead directly to improvements in housing access or affordability.

The suite of national policy statements and ministerial directives on urban development between 2017 and 2026 more closely resemble the very worst of ‘picking winners’ type policy weighted toward urban areas already enjoying a large share of economic activity. For example, the Auckland Region accounts for ~38% of national GDP and the “Golden Triangle” of Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga ~50% of both national GDP and population. There is no evidence-based linkage in the entire suite of urban development and housing policy statements and ministerial directives with socio-demographic trends, including net migration inflows and nothing that examines the sustainability of the choices made in relation to economic and social infrastructure availability and funding, or our natural environment. It’s all about growth.

Growth will not alleviate the inequality in housing outcomes. Growth will not result in lower land or housing prices and will not widen access to good quality and affordable housing for those sections of society who do not qualify for income-tested social housing or a bank mortgage. Growth will not ameliorate the high cost of building, skilled labour shortages, building material supply chain oligopolies, and our infrastructure quality, capacity and funding deficits. Growth will not facilitate innovation in new off-site and on-site building systems or result in improved environmental outcomes. All of these dimensions, both within and impacting on our housing ecosystem, need to be specifically addressed if we are serious about achieving long-term improvements — especially housing affordability. What nobody needs is more unaffordable housing at market prices.

Growth will very likely result in inefficient land use, overloading of under-capacity and under-funded technical and social infrastructure, poor spatial and ecological outcomes, and more development opportunities for private actors who will seek the highest possible price. That’s how “the machine” works. Growth is not synonymous with social equality — the latter which, to lean on the musings of philosopher Gilbert Ryle, might be likened to the “ghost in the machine”. They are different concepts that co-exist within the same economic system. Growth is promoted as a means of delivering social equality but it is yet to materialise.

What would be really good is a plan (any plan) aimed at addressing the actual issues — housing affordability, living standards, inequality — and switching the political and economic rhetoric from what is a pyrrhic quest for continual growth to societal improvement. For this to happen petty party politics and neo-liberal idolatry will need to be put aside. That is our biggest challenge.